Farmweek 10 01 2018 E Edition Page 1

Periodicals: Time Valued Monday, October 1, 2018 Two sections Volume 46, No. 39 Illinois Farm Bureau nutrient grants foster creation of new technology tools for farmers. page 3 Commercial pumpkin yields, as well as quality, remain above aver- age, ensuring lots of pie and cake. page 5 Tis harvest season, and Farm Bureau members share photos depicting their daily pursuits. page 8 v e y R r i a ai D ou y t c a t on C n i ore m or fo 0818-006HO o ti c e t o r e P u n e v p re r u . o f ! e r e s h n i o Basis improvement unlikely through harvest Some country elevators could be 'bulging at the seams' Trucks filled with grain enter unloading facilities at Western Grain Marketing at Adair, while train cars stand ready to be loaded. A unit train of 110 cars can carry up to 450,000 bushels. (Photo by Catrina Rawson) BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek It appears farmers, who generally are unwilling sellers of their crops so far this harvest, won't see much incen- tive to make many sales any time soon. Low cash crop bids could linger and remain well below futures prices through much of harvest, according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for INTL FCStone. "The cash market is reflecting the real supply and demand issues," Suder- man told FarmWeek . "The board (of trade) for now appears reluctant to go lower, but the cash market is. (Signifi- cant basis improvement) is probably not going to occur through harvest." Cash corn prices at some locations dipped below $3 per bushel in recent weeks, while soybeans prices tumbled to $8 or less. What caused local crop prices to spiral? "We're facing a big crop out there, especially in Illinois (where USDA esti- mates record yields of 66 bushels per acre for soybeans and 214 bushels for corn)," Suderman said. "You can debate USDA's numbers, but it still is a big crop. It's coming into town and cre- ating storage issues." Farmers in Illinois harvested 16 per- cent of corn and 13 percent of the soy- bean crop from Sept. 16-22, pushing harvest to 28 percent complete for corn and 17 percent for beans as of Sept. 24, 17 and 11 percent ahead of average, respectively. "We're running about 10 days ahead of schedule on the harvest," Mike Rumbold, CEO of Rumbold & Kuhn, a third-generation grain company based in Wyoming (Stark County), told the RFD Radio Network . "In our area, we're going to be bulging at the seams." Many farmers and elevators still have a significant amount of old crop, particularly corn, in storage. And now, record yields are pouring into some ele- vators. "A lot of farmers (traditionally) like to deliver their soybeans and sell corn. But this year they don't really want to let go of soybeans at these prices, either," Suderman said. "It's really put- ting pressure on the market. In most cases, there's not enough storage space for both (crops). Some tough decisions have to be made." Rumbold also foresees continued pressure on basis levels. He believes some farmers who pre-sold a portion of their crops at higher prices last sum- mer could still make money on it, while those looking to sell into the current cash market could see red. "We're going to be oversupplying in a lower market," he said. "That doesn't bode well for cash prices." When can farmers possibly see bet- ter pricing opportunities? "Once the crop finds a home," Sud- erman said. "We still have a strong BY DEANA STROISCH FarmWeek Without an agreement on major issues, the 2014 farm bill was expected to expire Sunday without a replacement or an extension. Adam Nielsen, Illinois Farm Bureau's director of national legislation and poli- cy development, predicted "we'll be without a farm bill for the foreseeable future." He encouraged Congress to pass a new farm bill "as soon as possi- ble." "These are programs that we rely on," Nielsen said. "Congress has a job to do to pass a farm bill every five years. We still have a chance to do it in a some- what timely way by the end of the year." If a farm bill isn't passed by the end of this Congress, the farm bill process - hearings and all - have to start from scratch. Nielsen described that as a "nightmare scenario." Farm bill expected to expire, now what? See Farm bill , page 2 See Basis , page 2

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